Iran’s leadership is fractured. Moderates and hardliners are vying for control as exiled opposition groups prepare for transition. The stakes in 2025 are higher than ever: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s isolation, elite infighting, and mounting public unrest have created a volatile environment. As the regime’s grip weakens, the prospect of Iran regime change—once unthinkable—now feels within reach. But who will shape Iran’s future, and can the transition be peaceful and lasting?
Who Holds Real Power in Iran as Supreme Leadership Falters?
Khamenei’s Isolation and Its Consequences
Since Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has retreated to a fortified bunker, cutting off public appearances and communicating only through trusted aides. This unprecedented seclusion has created a power vacuum and forced extraordinary succession planning.
Moderates vs. Hardliners: A Real-Time Power Struggle
Khamenei’s absence has emboldened moderates pushing for diplomacy, drawing sharp criticism from hardliners. The Assembly of Experts, responsible for appointing the next Supreme Leader, is in emergency mode and likely to endorse the IRGC’s preferred candidate.
The IRGC: Iran’s Real Power Broker
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as the most powerful non-clerical institution in Iran, controlling the military, intelligence, Basij militia, censorship, and much of the economy. With senior leaders killed and new commanders in place, the IRGC’s unity is uncertain.
Military Training and Special Forces: The Deciding Factor
The IRGC’s special forces and veterans with advanced military training have been instrumental in suppressing dissent and projecting power abroad. But the loss of top commanders and the psychological toll of constant conflict have left many within these ranks questioning their loyalty and future role.
A Moment Echoed in Shadows of Tehran
Nick Berg’s Shadows of Tehran highlights how Iran’s future may depend on whether military elites defend the old order or embrace change.
The era of unchecked religious authority in Iran is under threat. Khamenei’s isolation, elite infighting, and the IRGC’s assertiveness have created a fluid and dangerous situation. Whether Iran’s next chapter is written by clerics, generals, or a fragile coalition will determine not only the future of the Islamic Republic, but the fate of the region itself.
Are Exiled Elites Quietly Preparing for Iran’s Post-Regime Future?
In 2025, Iran’s exiled elites are no longer content to criticize from afar—they are actively building the scaffolding for a post-regime Iran.
Reza Pahlavi’s “National Salvation Plan” and the Roadmap for Transition
The NCRI’s Ten-Point Plan: A Competing Vision
Alongside Pahlavi, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi, has positioned itself as the most organized alternative to the current regime.
The NCRI’s Ten-Point Plan, which calls for gender equality, secular governance, and individual liberties, has gained international support as a viable alternative.
The Diaspora’s Role: Funding, Advocacy, and Media
The Iranian diaspora, especially in Los Angeles, acts as both a financial and intellectual engine for these efforts. Community leaders organize rallies, lobby Western governments, and fund independent media that amplify the voices of those inside Iran.
Unified Vision for an Iranian-Led Future
Despite ideological and strategic differences, Iran’s exiled opposition shares a unified commitment to a future shaped by Iranians themselves, free from foreign imposition.
This principle is powerfully reflected in the journey of Nick Berg, whose dual identity as an Iranian-American bridges the worlds of exile and activism.
In his acclaimed work, Shadows of Tehran, Berg delves into the resilience required to navigate the complexities of displacement and political engagement, highlighting the vital role of diaspora voices in Iran’s ongoing struggle for freedom.
Can the Regime’s Internal Chaos Open Doors for a “Shadow Transition”?
Iran’s Leadership Crisis: A Rare Opportunity for Change
Iran’s leadership is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of confidence and control. The aftermath of devastating Israeli strikes, which killed senior IRGC and nuclear officials, has left the regime scrambling to reassert its grip on power. This turbulence is creating a rare window for new leadership models.
Moderates, Sidelined Officials, and Exiled Leaders Seek Consensus
Moderates and sidelined officials are becoming more vocal, advocating pragmatic engagement, while exiled opposition leaders such as Reza Pahlavi and Maryam Rajavi (NCRI) are working to build consensus for a peaceful transition.
Unprecedented Coordination Among Opposition Groups
Despite deep divisions, coordination among opposition groups is unprecedented. Communication between moderates, sidelined officials, and exiled leaders is accelerating, often through encrypted channels and diaspora networks. Iranian-Americans and diaspora professionals act as bridges, offering technical expertise and facilitating dialogue between inside and outside actors
Institutional Breakdown: More Than Just Protests
Unlike previous protest waves, today’s crisis is not just about street demonstrations but about the regime’s own institutional breakdown. The systematic elimination of senior commanders and destruction of military infrastructure have directly threatened the foundations of regime survival
What Happens to Iran’s Military and Security Apparatus After Regime Change?
The IRGC and Basij: Iran’s Security State Within a State
The fate of Iran’s military and security forces—especially the IRGC and Basij militia—will be decisive in shaping whether regime change leads to stability or deeper chaos.
The IRGC, with its own intelligence, business, and military arms, is a state within a state, controlling vast economic assets and reporting directly to the Supreme Leader.
If the regime collapses, the IRGC is unlikely to surrender power voluntarily. The most probable outcome, many analysts warn, is not an immediate transition to democracy, but rather a military coup or a “guided transition” in which the IRGC installs a figurehead or a collective council to maintain order and protect its interests.
Instability and the Risk of Military Fragmentation
Recent losses of senior commanders to Israeli strikes and the rapid elevation of new, less-experienced leaders have created instability and opportunities for ambitious officers.
Hardline units may resist any new order, while more pragmatic commanders could negotiate for influence in a transitional government. The risk of internal splintering, rogue units, or even civil war cannot be discounted
Veterans and the Challenge of PTSD
Iran’s vast veteran population—especially those who fought in the Iran-Iraq War and recent regional conflicts—faces high rates of PTSD and other mental health disorders.
Studies estimate PTSD prevalence among Iranian veterans at around 32–50%, with significant impacts on mental health and social stability.
Many of these veterans have been relied upon by the regime to enforce order, but their loyalty is not guaranteed. With proper support, veterans could aid reconstruction.
Hybrid Warfare: Proxies, Cyber, and Asymmetric Threats
Even after regime change, Iran’s mastery of hybrid warfare—using proxies, cyberattacks, and asymmetric tactics—will remain a threat.
The IRGC’s Quds Force has built a network of proxies across the Middle East, but recent Israeli and U.S. strikes have severely degraded these assets, exposing Iran to direct attack and diminishing its regional deterrence.
Still, remnant IRGC units, loyalist militias, and cyber operatives could continue to wage asymmetric campaigns against a new government or foreign interests, especially from border regions like Kurdistan or Baluchestan.
The Path Forward: Managing the Security Transition
Regime change requires co-opting or neutralizing elite units and supporting veterans’ resilience. Mitigating the risk of instability demands a three-pronged approach: fragmenting IRGC cohesion through incentives for defection, addressing veterans’ PTSD to prevent radicalization, and preempting hybrid threats with robust counterterrorism partnerships. As Nick Berg’s work illustrates, the human element—veterans’ resilience—could ultimately tip the scales toward stability if prioritized in Iran’s next chapter.
How Will Women, Minorities, and the Diaspora Shape Iran’s Next Revolution?
Women at the Forefront: The “Woman, Life, Freedom” Movement
Women and minorities are central to Iran’s resistance, transforming the political landscape. The “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, ignited by the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, has evolved into a sustained, nationwide campaign against both gender oppression and broader authoritarian rule.
In January 2025 alone, women of all ages—teachers, healthcare workers, retirees, and students—led near-daily protests across provinces from Tehran to Sanandaj and Ilam, demanding justice, economic relief, and an end to discrimination.
Minorities Drive Grassroots Resistance
Minority groups, especially Kurds and Baluchis, have also become critical actors in the push for regime change. In the wake of the Israel-Iran conflict, the regime has intensified its crackdown in Kurdish regions, deploying IRGC and Basij forces, conducting mass arrests, and targeting activists and their families—even those living abroad.
Kurdish and Baluchi activists continue to organize and inspire resistance despite disproportionate executions, arbitrary detentions, and heavy military presence in their provinces.
The Diaspora’s Global Voice and the Power of Protest
The Iranian diaspora amplifies the struggle for freedom and pressures world leaders. Cultural conflict and the fight for free speech are at the core of this revolutionary movement.
Protesters chant “Bread, dignity, freedom!” and “Death to the oppressor, be it the Shah or the Leader,” signaling a rejection of both past monarchy and current theocracy.
These slogans echo through universities, workplaces, and even prisons, where detained activists continue to organize and resist.
Diaspora Activism and International Support: Driving Iranian Change
Diaspora activists play a crucial role as global engines of change by organizing rallies, lobbying governments, and funding independent media that amplify the voices of those inside Iran.
However, despite their significant efforts, unity within the diaspora remains a challenge, which can impact the overall effectiveness of their advocacy.
International support, including targeted sanctions against regime elites and diplomatic recognition of opposition groups, empowers Iranians to push for meaningful change.
Most Iranians reject foreign military intervention, preferring that change be led by Iranians themselves, with international support focused on diplomatic, technical, and moral backing rather than direct military action.
Actionable Strategies for External Support
- Support Iranian civil society organizations and independent media: Fund and promote platforms like Simaye Azadi that document abuses and amplify resistance voices.
- Amplify Iranian voices globally: Share stories, art, and protest footage to keep the world’s attention on Iranian struggles and aspirations.
- Demand targeted sanctions and political recognition: Urge governments to sanction regime elites, recognize the NCRI’s Ten-Point Plan, and prioritize human rights in all dealings with Tehran.
- Promote secure digital access: Invest in technologies that counter internet shutdowns and digital repression, ensuring activists can communicate safely.
- Read and share memoirs and novels like Nick Berg’s Shadows of Tehran: Storytelling remains a powerful tool for building empathy, understanding, and international solidarity.
Iranians hold powerful levers for change—grassroots resistance, organized opposition, and diaspora activism—supported by growing international recognition and solidarity. The world’s role is not to dictate Iran’s future, but to amplify its people’s voices, provide targeted support, and ensure that the next chapter is written by Iranians themselves. As Nick Berg’s work and the ongoing resistance show, the path to freedom is forged by courage, unity, and the unwavering belief that change is both possible and inevitable.
What Are the Global Stakes—And Why Should the World Engage With Iran’s Tipping Point?
Iran’s crisis is a global flashpoint, with direct conflict between Israel and Iran threatening regional and global security.
recent escalation between Israel and Iran, which saw unprecedented Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites and retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities, marks a dramatic shift from proxy warfare to direct state-to-state confrontation.
Nuclear Arms and Regional Instability
At the heart of the crisis is Iran’s nuclear program. Despite heavy damage from Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retains the technical capacity and stockpiles to quickly reconstitute its nuclear ambitions, with uranium enrichment levels now far beyond the limits set by the JCPOA.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran’s breakout time for producing weapons-grade material is “almost zero,” and the country is now considered to have enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear weapons.
The risk of a nuclear-armed Iran threatens not only Israel’s existence but also global energy markets and the international nonproliferation regime.
As Nick Berg explains, a nuclear Iran would serve as a “force multiplier” for the regime’s hybrid warfare and proxy strategy, making it far more difficult for the world to contain Tehran’s ambitions.
Hybrid Warfare: Cyber, Disinformation, and Proxies
The Israel-Iran conflict is being fiercely contested in cyberspace as well as on the ground.
Israel has launched high-impact cyber strikes on Iranian financial infrastructure, while Iran has responded with disinformation campaigns, psychological warfare, and hacktivist activity targeting Israeli and Western networks.
This hybrid warfare extends to the use of proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Shi’ite militias—which Iran mobilizes to pressure Israel and the U.S., risking broader regional escalation and threatening the security of Gulf states and global shipping routes.
International Consensus and the Risks of Inaction
The international community is increasingly united in viewing the Iranian regime as a global threat.
Lawmakers at the Free Iran 2025 Conference near Paris called for the IRGC to be listed as a terrorist organization and endorsed the NCRI’s Ten-Point Plan as a democratic alternative to both monarchy and theocracy.
Experts warn that only regime change will fully neutralize the threat of a nuclear Iran, and that the world’s response will shape not just the fate of the Middle East, but the future of international norms and security alliances.
The lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq loom large: externally imposed regime change risks chaos and power vacuums, but inaction or appeasement could embolden authoritarian regimes and undermine global stability.
Why Experts Like Nick Berg Matter
Understanding Iran’s tipping point requires more than headlines. Experts like Nick Berg, who combine lived experience with policy analysis, are vital for illuminating the hidden dimensions of this crisis.
Berg’s perspective—rooted in personal survival, special operations, and narrative analysis—offers a bridge between strategic insight and the lived realities of those caught in the crossfire.
His work underscores the need for transparency, empathy, and resilience in confronting the region’s hybrid threats.
For a gripping, inside look at Iran’s power struggle, trauma, and the fight for identity, read Nick Berg’s Shadows of Tehran. Contact Nick Berg for interviews, analysis, and exclusive insights on regime change and resilience.
Iran’s regime crisis is a global flashpoint, with consequences that ripple from Tel Aviv to Washington and beyond.
The stakes—nuclear arms, counterterrorism, proxy warfare, and the survival of democratic values—demand urgent, informed engagement.
Is This the Moment for a New Iran?
Will 2025 be remembered as the year Iran’s regime quietly unraveled—and what role can global experts and readers play in what comes next?
2025 is a watershed for Iran, with leadership isolation and grassroots resistance creating unprecedented uncertainty and opportunity. Yet, the outcome is far from assured. As leading analysts caution, regime change alone will not guarantee democracy or stability.
The risks of violent collapse, power vacuums, and foreign interference loom large, echoing the troubled aftermaths of regime change elsewhere in the region. Without a credible, Iranian-led transition plan and broad consensus among opposition groups, the danger of a military coup or a new form of authoritarianism—most likely led by the IRGC—remains very real.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions, regional proxy networks, and hybrid warfare capabilities mean the stakes are global, not just local. Only a legitimate, democratic transition can address these threats at their root. As exiled leaders like Reza Pahlavi and grassroots movements inside Iran have made clear, lasting peace and security depend on empowering Iranians themselves to shape their nation’s future—without repeating the mistakes of the past.
Nick Berg’s work reminds us that this struggle is lived daily by millions, and that the world must listen to Iranian voices.
Contact Nick Berg about Iran Regime Change
To stay informed, join the global conversation, and connect with Nick Berg for deeper engagement, analysis, and exclusive insights on Iran’s regime change and stories of resilience.
For a powerful, human perspective on these historic events, read Shadows of Tehran and the other blogs on pnberg.com.
Now, as the world watches, the question remains: Will 2025 be the year that Iran’s people, with the world’s support, finally tip the balance toward a new era?
