Politicians make the speeches. Diplomacy shapes the options before the public sees them.
Why Do People Misunderstand Where Power Really Sits?
People misunderstand power because visible power is easier to recognize than hidden influence. Politicians speak on camera, but the options they present are often shaped long before the public sees them.
Speeches, threats, press conferences and official statements create the impression that leaders are fully in control. But foreign policy is usually built in layers: ministries, diplomatic channels, embassies, security services, advisers, allies, think tanks, economic interests and regional mediators.
That does not mean one secret elite controls everything. It means power often works through process. Whoever shapes the information, timing, risks and available options can influence the final decision before it is ever announced.
Power does not always control the final decision. Sometimes power controls the menu of choices.
Sources:
CFR Education: What Is Diplomacy?
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics: Leaders and Foreign Policy: Surveying the Evidence
What Does Diplomacy Actually Do?
Diplomacy is the system through which states negotiate, signal, pressure, compromise, delay, threaten, reassure and protect interests without immediately moving to open conflict.
It is not just “talking.” Diplomacy can mean confidential meetings, sanctions discussions, security guarantees, backchannel messages, crisis mediation and carefully chosen language that allows both sides to move without public humiliation.
It also keeps communication open when official relations are hostile. That matters in Iran policy, because public threats can escalate quickly when there is no private channel to test intentions, reduce risk or explore a way out.
Diplomacy is not the absence of power. It is one of the ways power moves quietly.
Sources:
United Nations DPPA: Prevention and Mediation
United Nations: Peace and Security
National Museum of American Diplomacy: Formal Diplomacy
National Museum of American Diplomacy: What are the tools of diplomacy?
Why Is Diplomacy So Open to Outside Influence?
Diplomacy is vulnerable to outside influence because much of it happens away from public view, where interests can shape the options before citizens know what is being discussed.
Serious negotiations need confidentiality. States cannot test concessions, exchange warnings or explore compromise if every sentence becomes public theatre. But that same secrecy creates space for outside actors to influence what leaders hear, which risks matter most and which options are treated as realistic.
Sources:
Springer Nature / The Review of International Organizations: Negotiating with your mouth full: Intergovernmental negotiations between transparency and confidentiality
United Nations: Diplomacy for peace
How do other states influence diplomacy?
Other states influence diplomacy by acting as mediators, pressure points or gatekeepers.
Oman is a clear example in Iran diplomacy. It has repeatedly acted as a quiet channel between Iran and the West, giving a small Gulf state influence far beyond its size. When direct contact is politically difficult, the mediator can shape timing, tone and trust.
Sources:
Brookings: America and Iran: Backchanneling In Plain Sight
Reuters: Iran-U.S. talks to take place in Oman on Friday, U.S. official confirms
How do lobby groups and donors influence diplomacy?
Lobby groups and donors influence diplomacy by shaping the domestic political cost of a deal.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal showed this clearly. In Washington, lobbying groups, donor networks and advocacy campaigns tried to influence whether Congress would support or block the agreement. That did not mean they controlled the deal, but they helped shape the pressure around it.
Sources:
CBS News: Iran nuclear deal lobbying being called mother of all Congressional fights
How do think tanks influence diplomacy?
Think tanks influence diplomacy by shaping the language of what sounds “serious,” “dangerous” or “realistic.”
Their reports, expert briefings and policy networks often feed into the ideas used by officials, journalists and politicians. This can be useful, but it also raises questions about funding, access and transparency when foreign-policy ideas are shaped outside public debate.
Sources:
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics: Think Tanks and Foreign Policy
OECD: Lobbying and influence: Government at a Glance 2023
How do energy and defense interests influence diplomacy?
Energy and defense interests influence diplomacy by changing what governments fear or prioritize.
With Iran, energy security is central because of the Strait of Hormuz. A crisis there can affect oil prices, shipping routes and inflation. Defense interests also matter because long-term threat environments create demand for air defense, maritime security, drones, intelligence and cyber systems.
That does not mean these industries create every crisis. But they do have a stake in how threats are defined and managed.
Sources:
Reuters: China’s independent refiners cut output in May as losses mount, sources say
EIA: Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint
How do NGOs, diaspora groups and opposition voices influence diplomacy?
What is the real problem?
Why Is Iran So Important to So Many Outside Actors?
Iran matters because it is not only a country with an internal crisis. It is a strategic crossroads for energy, security, nuclear policy, regional power, global trade and the balance between the West, Russia and China.
Sources:
Reuters: No deal, no exit: How US-Iran standoff risks fresh conflict
Why does Iran matter for energy?
Iran matters for energy because of its position near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil and gas transit routes in the world.
Any crisis involving Iran can affect shipping, oil prices, LNG flows and the confidence of global markets. That makes Iran policy important not only to governments, but also to energy companies, traders, shipping insurers and countries dependent on Gulf energy.
Sources:
SIPRI: Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025
Reuters: Oil falls as Trump holds off on scheduled attack on Iran
Why does Iran matter for security?
Iran matters for security because it sits at the centre of several overlapping conflicts.
For Israel, Iran is tied to nuclear risk, missile threats and regional proxy networks. For the United States, Iran is tied to military presence in the Middle East, Gulf security and the credibility of deterrence. For the Gulf states, Iran is both a neighbour and a potential threat that must be contained without triggering a wider war.
Sources:
CSIS Missile Threat: Missiles of Iran
IAEA: Verification and Monitoring in Iran
Reuters: Iran says peace proposal includes reparations for war damage, US troop withdrawal
Why does Iran matter to Russia and China?
Iran matters to Russia and China because it can weaken Western influence, redirect diplomatic attention and shift the balance of power.
Russia can benefit when the United States is distracted and energy markets become unstable. China, meanwhile, wants energy access and a weaker American position in the region, but it does not benefit from a crisis that makes trade routes and energy prices unpredictable.
Sources:
Reuters: US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries
CSIS: No One, Not Even Beijing, Is Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz
Why does Iran matter beyond governments?
Which Outside Actors Have an Interest in Iran’s Future?
Many actors have an interest in Iran’s future, but they do not all want the same outcome. Some want stability, some want regime weakness, some want cheap energy, some benefit from high tension, and some want Iran’s people to finally shape their own future.
Sources:
Chatham House: How Iran’s ‘forward defence’ became a strategic boomerang
Atlantic Council: Seven things to know about the potential for resumed Iran nuclear negotiations
What does the United States want from Iran?
The United States wants to prevent Iran from becoming stronger as a nuclear, military and regional power.
Washington also wants to protect Israel, reassure Gulf partners, keep the Strait of Hormuz open and stop Iran from moving fully into the orbit of Russia and China.
For Washington, Iran is not only a nuclear issue. It is a question of regional order.
Sources:
The White House: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States by the Government of Iran
Congressional Research Service: U.S. Sanctions on Iran
U.S. Department of State: Completion of UN Sanctions Snapback on Iran
What does Israel want from Iran?
Israel wants an Iran that is militarily, nuclear and regionally weakened.
But total chaos inside Iran would also carry risks. A collapsing state can become unpredictable, especially when missiles, armed networks, nuclear infrastructure and hardline factions are involved.
Israel does not only fear Iran’s strength. It also has to fear what Iran’s collapse could unleash.
Sources:
INSS: From Military Achievement to a Regional Arrangement
INSS: Iran’s Strategic Nuclear Dilemma
Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Statement by Ambassador Daniel Meron at the plenary of The Conference on Disarmament
What do the Gulf states want?
The Gulf states want Iran contained, but they do not want a war that destroys regional stability.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman depend on secure shipping, energy exports, investment confidence and open routes through the Gulf. A major Iran crisis can threaten all of that.
The Gulf states want Iran contained, but not the entire region set on fire.
Sources:
Chatham House: How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit
AP: The UAE’s image as a Middle Eastern haven is tested by the Iran war
Atlantic Council: ‘They have been exposed’: The Iran war upends Gulf states’ security and business model
What does China want?
China wants access to energy, stable trade routes and a weaker American position in the Middle East.
But China does not benefit from long-term chaos around the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices, shipping disruption and uncertainty all make China’s economic planning harder.
China benefits from a weakened Western position, but not from an energy crisis it cannot control.
Sources:
The Diplomat: The Hormuz Crisis and China’s Energy Security Dilemma
Euronews: China treads carefully on Iran war as it balances energy security and neutrality
What does Russia want?
Russia can benefit when Iran distracts the United States, raises pressure on energy markets and remains dependent on anti-Western partnerships.
But Russia also has limits. A completely uncontrolled regional crisis could damage wider energy flows, create instability and reduce Moscow’s ability to manage its own strategic position.
For Russia, Iran can be a partner, a distraction, and a pressure point at the same time.
Sources:
Reuters: US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries
What do energy and defense interests want?
Energy companies, oil traders and shipping insurers react strongly to volatility around Iran, because every crisis can affect prices, routes and risk.
Defense and security sectors also have an interest in long-term threat environments. Air defense, maritime security, drones, intelligence, cyber systems and missile defence all become more important when Iran is framed as a permanent danger.
That does not mean these industries create every crisis.
But it does mean they have a stake in how threats are defined and managed.
A permanent threat environment creates permanent markets.
Sources:
Reuters / Investing.com: Exclusive: Oil-price bets ahead of Iran war news totalled $7 billion, reporting shows
SIPRI: Recent trends in international arms transfers in the Middle East and North Africa
SIPRI: Global arms flows jump nearly 10 per cent as European demand soars
What do the Iranian regime and the IRGC want?
What do ordinary Iranians and the diaspora want?
What Happens When Iran Is Negotiated Without Iranians?
When Iran is negotiated without Iranians, the country risks becoming a geopolitical object instead of a national future shaped by its own people.
Much of the world talks about Iran as a security problem, an energy problem, a nuclear problem or a strategic problem. Those concerns are real. But Iran is also a country of people who have lived for decades with repression, sanctions, fear, economic decline and political control.
Sources:
European Journal of International Relations: Representation, recognition and foreign policy in the Iran–US relationship
Monash University: Representation, recognition and foreign policy in the Iran–US relationship
Globalization and Health: Impacts of economic sanctions on population health and health system: a study at national and sub-national levels from 2000 to 2020 in Iran
PMC / Journal of Education and Health Promotion: The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Health and Strategies for Mitigation: A Glance at the Case of Iran
Why can stability become dangerous?
Stability becomes dangerous when it protects the system more than the people living under it.
A diplomatic deal may reduce tensions. It may slow escalation. It may protect shipping routes or limit nuclear risk. But if it ignores the people inside Iran, it can also preserve the same system that made the crisis possible.
In that case, stability becomes a word for keeping the regime alive. Opposition voices can be ignored. Ordinary citizens can be asked to carry the cost of decisions made far above them.
Sources:
Amnesty International: Iran 2025
World Bank: The World Bank in Islamic Republic of Iran
Why does Nick Berg’s perspective matter here?
Nick Berg’s perspective matters because Iran is not only a file on a foreign-policy desk. It is a lived reality.
His work, Shadows of Tehran, returns to the human side of Iran: memory, fear, ideology, repression, survival and the cost ordinary people pay when powerful actors decide their future for them.
Any serious discussion of Iran policy has to remember the people who are usually discussed by governments, but rarely allowed to shape the outcome.
When Does Diplomacy Become Dangerous?
How Does This Connect to Nick Berg’s View of Iran?
Nick Berg’s perspective matters because he understands Iran not only as a strategic file, but as a lived reality shaped by revolution, repression, exile, military power and the struggle for human dignity.
His work returns to the same difficult truth: Iran cannot be understood only through the eyes of governments. It has to be understood through the people who live with the consequences of those governments.
Shadows of Tehran gives personal weight to what policy language often removes: fear, memory, loyalty, betrayal, survival and the cost of ideology when it enters ordinary life.
That is why this discussion about diplomacy matters. If Iran’s future is discussed only by states, regimes, strategists, markets and outside powers, the human story is pushed into the background again.
For Nick Berg, the central question is not only what the world does about Iran. It is whether Iranians themselves are allowed to become more than the object of someone else’s strategy.
What Is the Real Takeaway?
The real takeaway is that Iran’s future will not be shaped by public speeches alone. It will be shaped by the hidden process that decides which options exist before the public even sees them.
Politicians may announce decisions, but diplomacy often defines the field on which those decisions are made. That is why Iran policy matters far beyond the headlines.
It is not only a crisis between governments. It is a contest between competing interests, hidden influence, strategic fear and the unanswered question of whether Iranians themselves will be allowed to shape what comes next.
The danger is not that one hidden elite controls Iran’s future. The danger is that too many outside interests may shape it before Iranians themselves get the chance.
Politicians may speak for the moment. Diplomacy may decide the future. The question is whether Iran’s people will be in the room when that future is shaped.
