Why is Iran protesting right now—and why can it get you shot?

Iran protesting

Iran protesting is not a “normal” civic act. It can be met with live fire, mass arrests, and court charges that carry the death penalty. In the past 48 hours (December 29–30, 2025), protests tied to the currency collapse spread from Tehran’s commercial districts outward, with reports of tear gas and baton charges. (source Reuter)

Iran International also published footage it says shows security forces shooting directly at protesters in Hamadan; that specific clip is difficult to independently verify, but it matches a long-established pattern of escalation when the state senses momentum. (source Iran International – scroll for video)

What happens to you if you’re caught in Iran protesting?

If you’re caught in Iran protesting, you risk being detained under broad “national security” accusations, tried in Revolutionary Courts, and sentenced to years in prison—or worse.

UN human rights experts have repeatedly warned about protesters being charged with capital offences such as moharebeh (“enmity/waging war against God”) and efsad-e fel-arz (“corruption on earth”), with death sentences issued after rushed, unfair proceedings. (source OHCHR)

Human Rights Watch has documented how these vaguely defined charges have been used against protesters, alongside allegations of coerced confessions and denial of due process. (source HRW)

And the threat is not abstract: Reuters reported Iran’s first execution connected to the 2022 protest wave, followed by further executions—showing that the state is willing to use the death penalty as deterrence. (source Reuters)

What happened in the last two days of Iran protesting?

In the last two days of Iran protesting, the trigger has been the currency’s collapse and the economic shock it signals. Protests and strikes flared around Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and other commercial hubs as the rial hit record lows on the open market; security forces used tear gas in some clashes, and the government—unusually—talked about “dialogue” with protest leaders while acknowledging “legitimate demands.” (source The Wallstreet Journal)

That combination—street anger plus commercial shutdowns—is the pressure point. It’s harder to crush quietly, because it interrupts the regime’s everyday functioning, not just its image.

Why is this wave of Iran protesting strategically different from earlier street surges?

This wave of Iran protesting is strategically different because it’s hitting the cash system, not only the streets.

A protest can be dispersed; a sustained pattern of shop closures and strikes can starve the system of liquidity and force internal blame-games (like resignations and reshuffles) at the exact moment the state needs calm.

Recent reporting has highlighted how the currency plunge and strike activity are compounding a broader legitimacy crisis. (source Financial Times)

In Iran, where sanctions and isolation have made formal finance brittle, commercial noncooperation is a form of leverage—because it pressures the informal networks that keep money moving.

Will the fall of the regime end Iran’s proxies—or just change them?

Even if Iran protesting eventually contributes to regime collapse, it would not automatically “switch off” Iran’s proxy network.

A lot of Tehran’s regional influence now operates through adaptable, semi-autonomous networks rather than direct command-and-control.

Research on Iran’s “axis of resistance” describes it as flexible and able to survive shocks through alliances, local embedding, and alternative funding methods. (source Chatham House)

What can change fast is coordination and resupply. Iran’s support structure (training, weapons pipelines, prioritization, financing) matters—and disruption in Tehran can degrade that support even if some groups keep operating for local reasons. (source CSIS)

How can Iran protesting weaken the proxy machine before any regime change?

Iran protesting can weaken the proxy machine early by squeezing the same “gray-zone” economy that helps Tehran project power abroad. U.S. and allied financial authorities have described Iran’s reliance on sanctions-evasion mechanisms—front companies, shadow banking, and illicit oil-linked revenue streams—to move funds that support military activities and regional malign influence. (source Reuters)

When the Grand Bazaar shuts and commerce stalls, it’s not only public embarrassment—it hits the commercial bloodstream that generates and moves cash at the exact moment Iran’s state networks are already relying on sanctions-evasion and “shadow banking” methods to move funds internationally.

U.S. Treasury and the U.S. State Department have both described Iranian networks that use overseas front companies and shadow banking to transfer funds tied to Iranian oil revenue in ways that sustain the IRGC-Qods Force and other state actors. (source US Department of the Treasury)

Meanwhile, the latest reporting on the December 29–30 protests describes bazaar-linked shutdowns/strikes amid the currency plunge and clashes with security forces—exactly the kind of domestic instability that makes routine commercial activity harder to run and easier to disrupt. (see sources above)

As instability grows, the cost and operational risk of moving money through those same channels rises—because there’s less predictable commerce, more enforcement pressure, and more friction in everyday transactions.

And the politics tighten too: protesters have again used slogans rejecting money spent abroad over domestic needs (e.g., “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran”), turning external spending into a visible liability when households are collapsing. (source Iran International)

Iran Protesting and the Return of a Name: Why Reza Pahlavi Is Being Chanted in the Streets

As Iran protesting spreads, the renewed chants for the Pahlavi name are a clear signal that parts of the street are moving from “fix the economy” to “replace the system,” and they’re choosing Reza Pahlavi as a unifying transition figure rather than a vague slogan. 

Reuters-verified video from Tehran captured marchers chanting “Rest in peace Reza Shah”—a politically loaded reference to the Pahlavi era—and Iran International reported chants like “This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return” alongside Reza Pahlavi’s own public call for Iranians (including security forces) to join the protests. (source Reuters)

For supporters, the attraction is simple: Pahlavi is offering an organized, outward-facing alternative at a moment of chaos—an opposition “address” people can point to—something he has framed in interviews as leading a transition away from the Islamic Republic.

What should you watch next as Iran protesting continues—and why Reza Pahlavi matters?

As Iran protesting continues, watch whether shutdowns spread beyond symbolic districts into a wider pattern of economic noncooperation—and whether the state answers with concessions, selective scapegoating, or sharper violence.

Also watch whether calls for Reza Pahlavi keep surfacing across cities, because that’s a signal the movement is shifting from economic anger to an openly political transition demand. ‘

The fastest indicator won’t be a viral chant; it will be whether people keep closing their shops and showing their faces despite the known risks of arrest, torture, and even execution.

And that’s where Nick Berg—author of Shadows of Tehran—lands the point: in Iran, the bravest part of Iran protesting isn’t the slogan; it’s staying visible when the system is built to make visibility fatal.

May the people of Iran be protected, stay united, and keep their courage alive—and may the rest of us do our part by amplifying their voices, supporting trusted human-rights groups, and refusing to look away.

Share

Facebook
X
LinkedIn
Reddit
WhatsApp
Email

RSS Feed

Other Shadows of Tehran Blog Posts

Scroll to Top